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BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 135 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend we have a 13-fight card after that long 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and that I am prepared to win some cash on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC introduction so it is always nice once you’re already acquainted with the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions aren’t the greatest, but there is still a lot of money to be obtained. I’ll be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at these big prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I will be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC fights have been Fight Of The Year type fights. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games since we can lock at a win and receive all the points in the very best fight on the card. Normally 4 wins will get the job done in money games and we will get over 100 points on this battle. So, with that win locked in, we simply need to find 3 others we feel great about.
GPP drama of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s challenging to want to pay $9.5k to get a man like Barberena if you can just pay an extra $200 to find a -1000 favorite in Anders. However, I think that is what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I believe we’ll get him at a somewhat lower ownership due to his large salary, and he has an excellent chance at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can get a 1st round KO afterward he’ll have 100 points so he will pay off that large salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, I think you should find some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he’s a shell of his old self. I believe Barberena does pick up an end in this struggle so I will throw him some GPPs and hope he’s under owned.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is merely the effortless worth play of this week. Presently, Fili is the gambling popular at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that value when it’s available so that I presume he is in play in most formats. He will be popular in tournaments together with all the value we’re becoming on himbut I am willing to eat that chalk and that I don’t want to get burned by entirely fading that worth. I do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to call, but if Fili keeps using his wrestling I think he will have a fantastic shot at winning this battle. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d favor MJ although not by a good deal. At $7.5k we do not need a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do the trick. I am not going to pass on this value and I think he’s the simple underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my own personal prejudice but I am not going to have Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just looking to strike. I believe that this will be a remarkable battle as well and I think it’s going to be closer than the odds signal. At $8.9k I believe we’ll need a finish from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and I really don’t see that happening. If you do believe Dober can get a KO, then you should be playing him. I’ll just be paying up elsewhere because I am not sure he could get that finish and that I would not be amazed if he even lost the struggle. I will say that I never look to utilize Dober at DraftKings, therefore I could get burnt again here but I am going to stick with my Dober evaporate and he will be my fade of the week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick outlook for every fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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