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BIG MARLEY’S UFC 226 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

There is a good deal of money to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. I will be going heavier than usual this week following the big GPP prizes, and I will play less money games than normal. This is actually the first time we have observed a 30k top prize so I think it’s well worth chasing if you have the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from the struggle against Brian Ortega, so we are down to 11 battles and we ought to observe a great deal of ties on this card together with the more popular lineups. If you’re chasing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a bit different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the remainder of the field. With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy in addition to my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is far off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That’s just too much line worth to pass in money games which makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this battle, he should be highly owned it will not even damage your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so perhaps consider preventing the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with that crazy line value we’re getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of the week.
GPP drama of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird because I just picked Paul Felder as my cash play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we all don’t care about ownership. In case Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it doesn’t hurt your lineup since only 10 percent of lineups didn’t possess him and you only have to be top ~50% of the field to money in money games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. If he loses, that is half of the area that is dead with no shot at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% just due to the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you also get a win using the low owned man to set you at a much better location of a solo 1st place win and possibly hitting that $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anyone and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Can it shock you that much if Perry could KO him in this fight? In GPPs, we are interested in finding that boom or bust play and that’s Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog play of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this fight took place 5 decades ago, but today we get a fading Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can continue to keep this battle standing for most the struggle which will give him a big advantage. He’s also dangerous on the floor himself and when he’s taken down I believe he is going to be able to get back up if he is not able to acquire a submission of his very own. In case Pettis can win a decision then I think he will pay his off DK price tag and is going to be a fantastic underdog to use so it is possible to conserve salary on your lineups. I can even see this battle ending early from Pettis dropping Chiesa with a human body kick and if that happens he will probably be on the winning lineup when he could make it happen in round 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think that he wins the struggle, but I do not find him paying off that large price tag. He does not fight at a hefty rate and he has not gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the ground is where he’ll have his biggest edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and in his salary this week I want at least 91 points out of him to pay that much. I would rather cover the men higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of them, making him my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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