Best Bets for UFC 219: Weekly Wagering Deep Dive
UFC 219 is set to take place this Saturday night (Dec. 30) at Las Vegas, Nevada, and let’s just say that it doesn’t scream”quality” like preceding end-of-year UFC cards.
The UFC piles its card of the year in the top to base. Rather, in 2017, we now get a main event between Cris Cyborg and Holly Holm. While it has the potential to be a fantastic fight, it does not necessarily scream”buy this pay-per-view!”
This is also an extremely hard card to wager on as there aren’t lots of fights which you can get a strong read on. Many of the favorites, like Cyborg and Khabib Nurmagomedov, deserve to be overwhelming favorites, yet might also readily get merked by their opponents. Danger lurks.
That said, we must make some plays. So let us do the best we can to come across some golden underdogs, some worthy props, and a lucrative parlay. Also checking out my Best Bets for UFC Futures from last week, where I proposed a few’puppies (Carla Esparza and Neil Magny) who hold some value.
Golden Underdogs
Middleweight: Marvin Vettori (-222) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+187)
At first glance, this moneyline in BetOnline seems perfectly okay, but if you have a better look at this preliminary matchup, you can get some strong reasons to select the puppy in Omari”The Wolverine” Akhmedov (17-4).
Although Marvin Vettori (12-3) is a larger fighter who loves to throw down, averaging 3.13 significant strikes landed per minute, he doesn’t possess enough power to take Akhmedov out through (T)KO, so this fight might wind up being a grappling event. While Akhmedov has revealed previously that he has some power in his own hands (seven wins by knockout and also two”Fight of the Night” bonuses in the UFC), in which he really shines is in the wrestling section. The Dagestani grappler could easily wind up controlling the fight if the majority is spent at the clinch or around the mat.
The kryptonite that I watch for Akhmedov is his gasoline tank. Can he hit a cardio wall like he did in consecutive knockout losses to Sergio Moraes and Elizeu Zaleski? In both of those losses, Akhmedov started strong but faded badly in the subsequent rounds.
He followed up those declines with two hard-working decision wins Kyle Noke and Abdul Razak Alhassan, the latter an upset at UFC Fight Night 109. Right now I am leaning towards”The Wolverine’s” hard hands and wrestling acumen for a second possibly rewarding upset.
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